The End is Mir
But among scientists who monitor the near-Earth environment, an encounter with a 135 ton object from space is, well.... all in a day's work.
"Asteroids weighing as much as Mir hit Earth perhaps 10 times each year," says Bill Cooke, a member of the Space Environments team at the Marshall Space Flight Center's Engineering Directorate. "We know this because we observe the flashes of the explosions in the upper atmosphere via Department of Defense satellites."
Just last year a 200-ton asteroid startled Canadians with a sonic boom and a brilliant fireball as it disintegrated above the Yukon territory. Scientists later recovered a smattering of meteorites from nearby Lake Tagish, none larger than a few hundred grams.
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Indeed, if Mir were an asteroid, it wouldn't merit classification as a potentially hazardous one. In the cosmic scheme of things, Mir is simply too small.
Nevertheless, scientists expect the space station to put on a good show when it returns.
Mir is put together much like an erector set. It's a beautiful but gangly-looking assortment of solar arrays, laboratories and living quarters -- obviously not designed for aerodynamic flight through the atmosphere. The station will quickly fall apart as it descends toward Earth.
"We expect Mir to break into six or more main pieces when it hits the atmosphere," says Nicholas Johnson, chief scientist and program manager for orbital debris studies at NASA's Johnson Space Center. Each piece will resemble a blazing meteor that spits smaller fireballs as the pieces crumble and burn.
Below: These computer simulated images of Mir's descent and breakup appear courtesy of Analytical Graphics, Inc., the makers of Satellite Toolkit.
Cosmonauts assembled Mir piece-by-piece during a busy ten year period beginning in 1986. The station's modules include the voluminous Core, Mir's original 20-ton segment that harbors the crew's living quarters; plus Spektr, a 19-ton science laboratory famous for its 1997 collision with a Progress spacecraft; and the 19-ton Priroda Earth observatory, launched only five years ago.
Five of Mir's modules are still pressurized with air inside for humans. When they explode, sky watchers (mainly sea birds) could witness a once-in-a-lifetime display as incandescent fragments streak across the sky.
"Of Mir's 135 tons, the Russians say about 20 tons might reach the surface -- mostly in small pieces," noted Johnson.
Even now Mir is sinking 1.5 km each day because of atmospheric drag. Left to itself, the station would naturally plunge to Earth from its 250 km orbit no later than March 28th. But that would be an uncontrolled descent. Instead, Mir will be guided to its final resting place by a Progress spacecraft attached to the station.
"With a controlled deorbit it doesn't matter if 20 tons or the whole 135 tons reaches the surface -- the risk to people or property should be essentially zero," says Johnson. Mir's descent is certainly safer than the many uncontrolled encounters we experience with Mir-weight asteroids each year.
Above: Visit NASA Liftoff's JTrack to find out where Mir is now. The program should give accurate results until the Progress-guided descent of Mir begins on or about March 22nd.
No one knows more about dumping spacecraft in the remote Pacific than the Russians. Since 1978 they've deorbited 80 Progress spacecraft and five Salyut space stations in the same area. "Two Progress spacecraft have gone down there already this year," says Johnson. "Mir, which is attached to a Progress, will be the third."
"The most recent space station to descend over the Pacific was Salyut 6," he added. "That weighed 40 tons and came down in July of 1982. The deorbiting technique is exactly the same -- Mir's just a bit bigger."
Below: On January 18, 2000, a 200 ton asteroid -- about the same mass as Mir -- left this smoky trail above Canada's Yukon territory. [more information]
Fortunately, there's still time to see Mir from the safety of your own back yard. The rapidly-moving space station reflects sunlight and if you're outside at the right moment -- usually near local dusk or dawn -- Mir will appear as bright as a streaking first or second magnitude star. Science@NASA's online satellite tracking utility, JPass written by Patrick Meyer, can tell you when and where to look.
Russia's fabled space station is easy to see, but don't wait --because the end of Mir ... is near.
Editor's Note: NASA public affairs officer Kirsten Larson says she's been receiving plenty of phone calls asking about NASA's role in bringing Mir down. In fact, NASA is just a bystander. The Russian Aviation and Space Agency, Rosaviakosmos, is in complete control of the reentry procedure. However, noted Nicholas Johnson, the U.S. is providing tracking data to Rosaviakosmos as a courtesy. American radar data added to those of the European Space Agency and the Russians themselves, will help Rosaviakosmos make precision adjustments to Mir's orbit and land it squarely on target.Web Links
Mir Trajectory Reports -- from the Russian Space Agency's Mir Control Center. (external link)
Orbital Debris -- from NASA's Johnson Space Flight Center, an overview of the many things orbiting Earth.
Mir Space Station over Earth -- 1995 Goddard Space Flight Center Astronomy Picture of the Day
Solar S'Mores -- Science@NASA article. As a result of the solar maximum, Earth's atmosphere is "puffed up" like a marshmallow over a campfire leading to extra drag on Earth-orbiting satellites.
RussianSpaceWeb.com-- Current news about the Russian space program and a history of astronautics in the former Soviet Union. (external link)
Mir's Close Calls-- The Russian Space Web presents a recap of Mir's most perilous situations, a reminder that space exploration is not routine! (external link)
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