New NASA Asteroid Observations Eliminate Chance of 2032 Lunar Impact

Using data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope observations collected on Feb. 18 and 26, experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California have refined near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit and are ruling out a chance of lunar impact on Dec. 22, 2032. With the new data, 2024 YR4 is expected to pass by the lunar surface at a distance of 13,200 miles (21,200 km).

This update reflects improved precision in our understanding of where the asteroid is expected to be in 2032 rather than a shift in its orbital path. Previous analyses, made before the incorporation of these new observations, suggested 2024 YR4 had a 4.3% chance of lunar impact on this date.

The observation team, led by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, used Webb to capture the two additional observations of 2024 YR4 in an application of the telescope’s unique capabilities. Since spring of 2025, the asteroid has been unobservable from both Earth and space-based observatories except for this use of Webb to make among the faintest ever observations of an asteroid. 

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in late 2024 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. In early 2025, the information available about the asteroid’s trajectory indicated the asteroid had a small, but notable chance of impacting Earth. Over time with more observations collected by observatories around the world, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, or through the next century. It’s typical to have initial observations and risk models updated once additional observational data is gathered and models are able to be refined.