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How do scientists predict space weather?

Heliophysics Big Idea 1.2

Educator Background
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Educator Background

  • Scientists use a variety of methods to predict space weather. There are both ground-based observatories and satellites in Earth's orbit (and in orbit around the Sun) that take measurements that can help to predict space weather. Scientists predict space weather by monitoring the solar cycle (approximately 11 years), which can be observed by counting the number of sunspots, measuring changes in Earth's magnetic field, and by studying the Sun's atmosphere, the corona.

  • Learning Constraints

    At this level students have a deeper understanding of electromagnetism (HS-PS2-4,5), can quantify field interactions with Coulomb's Law (HS-PS2-4), and explain how Earth is able to generate a magnetic field, due to a rotating liquid outer core of Earth (HS-ESS2-3).

  • Connect to Heliophysics

    Connect to the Sun by focusing on the magnetic interactions on the Sun, including magnetic reconnection, and how the Sun's magnetic fields interact with Earth's magnetic field. Scientists use the Kp-Index to quantify the level of disturbance in Earth's magnetic field in order to predict space weather. Have students compare their analysis of sunspot data to their analysis of data from Earth-based magnetometers.

  • Extend Exploration

    Extend student exploration by having students explore the Van Allen Radiation Belts, which are essentially particles from the solar wind caught in the Earth's magnetosphere.

  • Differentiate for Beginner Learners

    Support beginner students by reviewing the basics of magnetic field interactions (MS-PS2-5).

  • Differentiate for More Advanced Learners

    Challenge students at the next level to investigate how technologies are impacted. For example, changes in Earth magnetic fields cause electrical currents to flow in the Earth’s crust. Sometimes these currents can find their way into transformers, causing the transformers to overheat and fail, resulting in electrical blackouts.

This image was created by adding together 54 observations of the sun's 10-million degree outer atmosphere, called the corona. The observations were made between Aug. 17 and Oct. 4. Perhaps the most striking feature of this visualization is how the activity is concentrated in horizontal bands above and below the equator. These so-called "activity belts" start closer to the poles and gradually move to low latitudes as the 11-year solar cycle progresses. We're currently in the maximum phase of this cycle, when there are many active regions clustered around 15 degrees above and below the equator. In the coming years, activity will concentrate even closer to the equator, as it peters out and the cycle begins anew. The driver of the activity belts is the solar dynamo, which generates the sun's magnetic field and ultimately produces all of the fun events documented on this site. However, the dynamo is a mysterious beast. The basics of it are very much the same as the electromagnetic you probably made in science class, where a magnetic field is created by sending an electric current through a coiled wire (Ampère's law). For the sun, the electric current is the plasma swirling around its interior. But beyond that, the details get murky and scientists are working hard on sorting them out.
NASA
Framework for heliophysics education

Heliophysics Resource Database

Use the guiding question above to explore resources at this level or go directly to our database to search for resources by level, NGSS performance expectation, topic, and mission.

Resource Database
In this animated GIF, a small portion of the Sun appears green. A bright white flash suddenly appears on the edge of the Sun.
On Nov. 4, 2003, this solar flare saturated the X-ray detectors on several Sun-observing spacecraft.
NASA/ESA/SOHO